It's All About the Matchup - Full Fantasy Hockey Team Matchup Rankings for ESPN Roto Leagues 2013

Welcome to Puck Numbers!

As a life-long hockey fan, I've decided to try my hand at fantasy hockey this year and have been loving every minute of it. Having played fantasy football, I was surprised to see a lack of quality match-up statistical analyses, as in any sport the quality of a player's opponent is often as important as the quality of the player himself. Curious, I took the plunge into the statistical void and have returned with some great data! I'll be updating this data daily with short and long-term breakdowns to identify which teams are winning and which are losing.

The inaugural post here is a full-breakdown of each NHL team and how generous or stingy they've been in each statistical category. To start, I've broken down the numbers for the ESPN Standard Roto stat categories, which consists of Goals, Assists, Plus/Minus, Penalties in Minutes, Power Play Points, Average Time On Ice, and Shots on Goal. I've also completed a breakdown of the goalie statistics: Wins, Save Percentage and Goals Against Average.

To keep things as straightforward as possible, I've done a simple recording of the total stats so far without getting into advanced statistics, which have been proven to be more predictive. More on that analysis in future posts.

Now, on to the data! Before you look, I'll explain how each column was tabulated.

Most of these stats were mined directly from NHL.com. However, some were less straightforward. You'll notice the Average Time on Ice is split into two categories: PP and PK. The PP column is a measurement of the amount of time the opposing team spent on the power-play compared to the average team. For the Penalty Kill, I investigated how much time opposing teams spent a man or more down compared to the average. 

One of the more difficult stats to tabulate was opposing goaltender GAA, which I calculated by subtracting each team's Total Empty Net Goals by their Total Goals For, then dividing by total games played to better approximate the data. Ok, for real this time, on to the data!

NORMALIZED TEAM MATCHUP DATA

TEAM	G	A	+/-	PIM	PP	SOG	ATOI-PP	ATOI-PK	W	SV%	GAA
ANA	-0.21	-0.21	-0.77	0.47	0.02	-1.14	5:23	5:33	-0.1565	-0.0094	0.4859
BOS	-0.58	-0.58	-0.67	-1.32	-0.15	-1.04	5:20	4:24	-0.166	-0.0045	0.0331
BUF	0.27	0.27	1.12	0.22	0.03	4.26	5:32	5:17	0.2885	0.0291	-1.0578
CGY	0.51	0.51	0.52	-1.53	0.01	-0.34	5:11	5:40	0.1067	-0.0053	0.0028
CAR	0.04	0.04	0.21	-2.15	0	0.86	5:24	5:18	0.0889	0.0088	-0.3662
CHI	0.08	0.08	-0.89	-1.41	-0.06	-2.64	5:26	5:20	-0.166	-0.0209	0.9851
COL	-0.32	-0.32	-0.65	-1.54	0.17	1.36	4:32	5:13	-0.1768	-0.0065	0.0702
CBS	0.12	0.12	0.24	-0.08	0.01	0.36	5:21	4:49	0.0764	-0.004	-0.1184
DAL	0.26	0.26	-0.16	1.07	0.07	2.36	4:58	6:06	0.0168	0	0.167
DET	-0.13	-0.13	0.03	-2.9	-0.04	-0.84	6:12	5:36	0.0721	0.0034	-0.0855
EDM	0.76	0.76	0.83	0.47	0.02	0.96	5:28	6:08	0.1864	-0.0035	-0.057
FLA	0.45	0.45	0.47	1.15	0.19	-0.84	4:51	5:54	0.1477	0.0139	-0.3956
LAK	-0.7	-0.7	-0.65	0.85	-0.05	-2.54	6:39	6:03	-0.1464	0.0024	-0.0427
MIN	-0.44	-0.44	-0.09	-1.3	0.11	-3.74	5:32	5:14	-0.0422	0.0078	-0.457
MON	-0.58	-0.58	-0.09	0.45	-0.18	0.16	5:40	5:39	-0.0708	0.0035	-0.1712
NSH	0.06	0.06	0.48	-1.35	-0.12	0.16	5:35	5:01	0.0158	0.006	-0.3002
NJD	-0.29	-0.29	0.15	-4.24	-0.2	-5.44	5:34	5:05	0.1183	-0.0021	-0.3074
NYI	0.77	0.77	0.71	-0.82	0.28	0.36	4:53	5:31	0.2359	0.0105	-0.2191
NYR	0.04	0.04	0.62	0.23	-0.17	-1.04	4:50	5:24	0.0301	0.0165	-0.3956
OTT	0.48	0.48	0.12	0.88	0.28	4.16	6:31	6:05	0.1183	0.0045	0.1338
PHI	0.03	0.03	0.33	4.59	0.09	0.46	7:02	6:22	0.0764	0.0103	-0.4215
PHX	0.42	0.42	-0.13	-0.95	0.17	3.46	5:36	5:15	-0.0619	-0.0097	0.4261
PIT	-0.46	-0.46	-0.29	-0.15	-0.25	-3.04	4:53	5:16	-0.1758	-0.01	0.3691
SJS	-0.31	-0.31	-0.55	0.5	-0.12	-2.44	4:22	6:42	-0.1054	0.0009	0.4876
STL	-0.32	-0.32	-0.84	4.91	-0.03	-4.44	5:57	5:35	-0.209	-0.0277	0.7799
TBL	-0.25	-0.25	-0.21	0.1	-0.06	-0.74	6:02	5:55	-0.0751	-0.0045	-0.0578
TOR	0.21	0.21	0	2.88	0.28	6.46	6:23	5:22	0.0006	-0.013	0.1044
VAN	-0.35	-0.35	-0.29	0.39	-0.29	-1.64	5:17	4:58	-0.0708	0.0026	0.1716
WSH	0.21	0.21	0.24	3.47	0.01	5.16	5:39	5:42	-0.0448	-0.009	0.3967
WPG	0.18	0.18	0.15	-2.27	0	1.36	6:05	5:38	0.0889	0.0097	-0.1603

RANKING BREAKDOWN PER STATISTICAL CATEGORY - SKATERS

TEAM	Scoring	+/-	PIM	PP Scoring	SOG	ATOI-PP	ATOI-PK
ANA	19	28	11	12	22	19	15
BOS	28	27	22	25	20	21	30
BUF	7	1	15	10	3	15	21
CAR	15	11	27	16	10	18	20
CBS	12	10	17	15	13	20	29
CGY	3	5	25	14	16	23	10
CHI	13	30	24	22	26	17	19
COL	23	25	26	6	7	29	25
DAL	8	20	6	9	6	24	4
DET	18	15	29	19	19	5	13
EDM	2	2	10	11	9	16	3
FLA	5	7	5	4	18	27	8
LAK	30	26	8	20	25	2	6
MIN	26	17	21	7	28	14	24
MON	29	18	12	27	15	9	11
NJD	21	13	30	28	30	13	26
NSH	14	6	23	24	14	12	27
NYI	1	3	19	3	12	26	16
NYR	16	4	14	26	21	28	17
OTT	4	14	7	2	4	3	5
PHI	17	8	2	8	11	1	2
PHX	6	19	20	5	5	11	23
PIT	27	23	18	29	27	25	22
SJS	22	24	9	23	24	30	1
STL	24	29	1	18	29	8	14
TBL	20	21	16	21	17	7	7
TOR	9	16	4	1	1	4	18
VAN	25	22	13	30	23	22	28
WPG	11	12	28	17	8	6	12
WSH	10	9	3	13	2	10	9

RANKING BREAKDOWN PER STATISTICAL CATEGORY - GOALIES

W	SV%	GAA	TEAM
25	25	27	ANA
26	21	18	BOS
1	1	1	BUF
9	7	6	CAR
11	19	12	CBS
7	22	17	CGY
27	29	30	CHI
29	23	19	COL
14	16	22	DAL
12	12	13	DET
3	18	15	EDM
4	3	4	FLA
24	14	16	LAK
17	8	2	MIN
21	11	10	MON
5	17	7	NJD
15	9	8	NSH
2	4	9	NYI
13	2	5	NYR
6	10	21	OTT
10	5	3	PHI
19	26	26	PHX
28	27	24	PIT
23	15	28	SJS
30	30	29	STL
22	20	14	TBL
16	28	20	TOR
20	13	23	VAN
8	6	11	WPG
18	24	25	WSH

The numbers here show how much below or above average teams have performed against each of these teams. For all stats except GAA, the larger, positive numbers are better. Edmonton and the New York Islanders are each allowing nearly a goal more than the average team and nearly a goal and a half more than the LA Kings, the stingiest team so far for scoring.

No big surprises here, save for Toronto and Washington ranking quite highly as favorable match-ups for skaters.

Take these numbers as a rough guide, as there is much more work to be done. For example, I plan to investigate whether teams allow assists at a near-equal rate, which I'll address in a future post. Addtionally, overtime minutes for goalies should be accounted for when calculating Goals Against Average is calculated by Goals Allowed per 60 on-ice minutes. Despite these shortcomings, this guide should suffice.

For my next post, I'll take a closer look at which teams have been the most generous match-ups across the board. I'll keep ya posted. Until next time, best of luck!

For those interested in the raw numbers, shoot me an e-mail at Jaywillyfantasy@gmail.com

Also, for those who are looking for a break from setting the same players in their line-ups everyday, check out DraftKings.com and enter one of their daily NHL Fantasy Drafts. I've found it especially satisfying whenever I try to pick up a player only to find another team scooped them up. Playing here helps me keep my blog going and the great data flowing for you. See you there!